Not Material as a Matter of Law?

So, apparently, the stress tests are over and the banks did fine. And that, sweetheart, is all you need to know. The Treasury says it will release the results on May 4th. Presumably, they're giving the banks a chance to get their spin right?

It is public knowledge which banks were tested. What's more, according to a partner at Alston & Bird tested banks that enter into a capital support agreement with treasury have to file an 8-K. But what about the stress test results? Do the results have to be disclosed?

Public companies can't make an untrue statement of material fact or omit a material fact that would make other statements misleading. A fact is "material" if there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable investor would consider the fact important. That rule comes from the Supreme Court (TSC v. Northway, 426 US 438) and has been enshrined in SEC rules 405 and 12b-2. The occurrence of the stress test is a fact and probably noteworthy to yer reasonable investor, but the results aren't facts. The results are projections based on assumptions about the state of the economy and on that count, the law isn't settled:

Current tests for determining the materiality of predictive or projective information range from case-by-case balancing of the information's potential aid against its potential harm to investors to rulings that predictive information, as a matter of law, is not material.

MATERIALITY OF PREDICTIVE INFORMATION AFTER BASIC: A PROPOSED TWO-PART TEST OF MATERIALITY 1990 U. Ill. L. Rev. 207, 208 (.1990)